As is customary for Kimpact Development Initiative in any elections to carry out a pre-election survey to assess electoral risk factors ahead of the election with a view to identify hotspot zones, early warning signals and the electoral risk factors that could assist relevant stakeholders, especially the INEC, security agencies and civil society organizations (CSOs) to deploy responses.
Given Kimpact is the coordinating hub of the Nigeria Election Violence Report (NEVR) Project for Bayelsa State ahead of its governorship election, KDI performed a pre-election survey of the state and duly organized a press conference to inform the public of the key findings; how citizen observation/monitoring could help in mitigating electoral violence; share various mediums where electoral violence can be reported; and remind all stakeholders to play by the rules at critical junctures of the electoral process – before, during and after the election.
The pre-election survey comprised a web-based experiment that sampled the opinions of 678 respondents across Bayelsa State as well as desk reviews, interviews and focus group discussions.
In the survey, 74.3% of the respondents agreed that elections in Bayelsa State have been attended by violence. Going forward, 51.77% of the respondents expect a peaceful governorship election while 48.23% expect a violent election. The four local governments that are likely to experience violence are Southern Ijaw, Brass, Nembe and Ekeremor. The remaining four local governments–Yenagoa, Kolokuma/Opokuma, Ogbia, and Sagbama – were put on amber alert i.e. Survey also revealed that the possibility of violence is unlikely in Kolokuma/Opokuma local government while Sagbama, Yenagoa, and Ogbia are projected to somewhat likely to experience violence. However, the remaining four (4) local governments: Ekeremor, Southern Ijaw, Nembe, and Brass have a high tendency of experiencing violence.
Also, from the analysis, the top risk factors which could spark electoral violence are party thuggery, vote-buying, cultists’ clash and the spate of decamping going on in the state.
Download the Full Press-Statement
Last modified: June 21, 2021